The coming years will be challenging for the country’s economy, but the agency foresees no severe crisis and the long term prospects remain very good. The fiscal policy is a concern and the new government will have to tackle the shrinking budget revenues, he added though. Separately, the rating agency Fitch estimates that Romania’s economic growth would decelerate under the circumstances of shrinking lending and it anticipates rising general macroeconomic risks but mentions no imminent rating action. Fitch maintains a one-notch differential above Moody’s and two-notch differential above S&P (BB+/negative) on
the country’s sovereign rating (BBB/negative). The main macroeconomic risks are generated by the external financing and by the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the banking system due to the large share of foreign currency in the stock of loans. A hard landing episode might be triggered by scarce external financing in case the foreign investors lose confidence in the country’s
fundamentals or in case their risk aversion further increases.